Document Type : مقالات علمی -پژوهشی
Authors
1
Professor of Political Geography, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
2
Ph.D. Candidate in Political Geography, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
3
Associate Professor of Strategic Management, Imam Khomeini University of Marine Sciences, Mazandaran, Iran
4
Associate Professor of Political Geography, Malek Ashtar University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
10.22067/pg.2026.100201.1462
Abstract
Background and Objective:
In the twenty-first century, maritime power has evolved from a predominantly military concept into a multidimensional phenomenon encompassing economic, politico-institutional, military, security, socio-cultural, scientific and technological, legal, geographical, and environmental dimensions. Rapid technological, geopolitical, economic, and environmental changes, together with the emergence of drivers such as artificial intelligence, the blue economy, and cybersecurity, have increased the need for a future-oriented perspective. Meanwhile, the conceptual fragmentation of maritime power indicators and the lack of a comprehensive framework have complicated forward-looking assessments of national maritime power. This study aimed to develop and validate a future-oriented framework for assessing maritime power with an emphasis on emerging drivers.
Methods:
This developmental study employed a mixed-methods approach with a sequential exploratory design. In the qualitative phase, variables were identified through a systematic literature review and directed content analysis. The extracted variables were then refined using integrated frequency-based and criteria-based approaches. In the quantitative phase, the proposed framework was validated through an expert questionnaire. Instrument reliability was confirmed with a Cronbach's alpha coefficient of 0.984.
Findings:
The results indicate that, alongside the foundational components of maritime power, emerging trends and transformative drivers—including artificial intelligence, the blue economy, cybersecurity, maritime governance, resilience, smart infrastructure, and emerging technologies—play a decisive role in shaping future maritime power. Ultimately, 44 validated variables were organized into nine dimensions. The geographical dimension ranked highest, followed by the security, economic, and military dimensions.
Conclusions:
The proposed framework integrates classical components with emerging drivers to assess both the current status of maritime power and countries' preparedness for future maritime challenges. It also provides a foundation for maritime foresight, maritime power scenario development, and maritime-oriented defense policymaking.
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