Document Type : مقالات علمی -پژوهشی
Authors
1
Assistant Professor, Department of Geopolitics, Command and General Staff University of the Army (DAJA), Tehran, Iran
2
Department of International Relations, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
In recent decades, transit corridors have played an increasingly significant role as one of the most important components of countries' geopolitical and geoeconomic power, contributing to the redefinition of their position in regional and global systems. Iran, with its unique transit geographical position, possesses substantial capacity to play a pivotal role in the North-South Transit Corridor. However, effectively harnessing this corridor faces numerous challenges and uncertainties. The present study aims to identify and analyze the variables and factors influencing this corridor and to elucidate its implications for various dimensions of Iran's national power. This research is applied in purpose and descriptive-analytical in method, employing a futures studies approach. Data were collected through library-based and field methods; influential factors were first identified, followed by the formulation of key drivers and plausible scenarios.
The results indicate that port capacity, regional economic diplomacy, cooperation with the Eurasian Economic Union and India, attractiveness for foreign investment, Iran's potential to become a transit hub, private sector participation, and the development of rail and logistics infrastructure play decisive roles in the future of this corridor and its impact on Iran's national power. Scenario analysis also reveals the predominance of threshold-crisis and crisis scenarios, highlighting structural fragility and a significant gap between the country's potential geopolitical capacities and its actual transit power. Nevertheless, achieving the desirable scenario through coordinated policies and institutional reforms could transform this corridor into a strategic lever for enhancing Iran's economic, geopolitical, and diplomatic power. Therefore, the study emphasizes the necessity of an integrated approach to transit policy-making, based on the simultaneous development of infrastructure, reform of transit governance, and activation of regional economic diplomacy.
Keywords
Subjects
