نوع مقاله : مقالات علمی -پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری روابط بین الملل دانشگاه گیلان، گیلان، ایران
2 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد علوم سیاسی پیام نور مرکز تهران غرب، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
ایران و عربستان همواره بهعنوان دو بازیگر رقیب منطقهای که به توسعه قلمروی نفوذ خود در خاورمیانه مبادرت میورزند، مطرح هستند. در این راستا؛ بحرین یکی از صحنههای مهم برای تقابلجویی و زورآزمایی ایران و عربستان در منطقه محسوب میشود. تحولات جهان عرب پس از سال 2011 میلادی، تأثیرات عمیقی بر نظم و معادلات قدرت در بحرین بر جای گذاشته است. در این رابطه، با توجه به هویت اسلامی- شیعی معترضان در بحرین و تعاملات معنوی بسیار نزدیک آنها با ایران، با روی کار آمدن گروههای شیعی در این کشور، تهران به قدرت و نفوذ فزایندهای در صحنه سیاست بحرین دست خواهد یافت. از طرفی، هرگونه تغییر در ساختار حکومتی این امیرنشین تأثیر تعیینکنندهای بر ساختار پادشاهی عربستان خواهد گذاشت. ازآنجاییکه عربستان نقشآفرینی ایران در معادلات سیاسی بحرین را تهدیدی برای سیاستهای منطقهای خود قلمداد میکند؛ لذا در تلاش برای محدود کردن قلمروی نفوذ ایران در بحرین برآمده است. این پژوهش در پی پاسخ به این سؤال اصلی است که عربستان سعودی برای کنترل و مهار ایران در بحرین دست به چه سیاستی زده است؟ فرضیه پژوهش حاضر این است که عربستان باهدف جلوگیری از تغییرات و پویشهای دموکراسیخواهانه در بحرین، در تلاش برای جلوگیری از تأثیرات نرم جمهوری اسلامی ایران بر ژئوپلیتیک تشیع در بحرین برآمده است و از این طریق از سرریز شدن تحولات داخلی بحرین به مناطق شرقی خود ممانعت میورزد. یافتههای تحقیق نشان میدهد؛ تغییر رژیم آلخلیفه، ضمن تأثیر بر سیاستهای انرژی عربستان، مطالبات سیاسی شـیعیان در منـاطق شرقی عربستان را افزایش خواهد داد و آنهـا را از انـزوای ژئـوپلیتیکی فعلـی رهـایی خواهـد بخشید. این امر ضمن ارتقای جایگاه جمهوری اسلامی و محور مقاومت در منطقه، ایجاد شکاف سیاسی و اجتماعی در درون جامعه عربستان را در پـی خواهد داشت.
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