با همکاری انجمن ژئوپلیتیک ایران

نوع مقاله : مقالات علمی -پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری روابط بین الملل دانشگاه گیلان، گیلان، ایران

2 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد علوم سیاسی پیام نور مرکز تهران غرب، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

ایران و عربستان همواره به‌عنوان دو بازیگر رقیب منطقه­ای که به توسعه قلمروی نفوذ خود در خاورمیانه مبادرت می­ورزند، مطرح هستند. در این راستا؛ بحرین یکی از صحنه­های مهم برای تقابل­جویی و زورآزمایی ایران و عربستان در منطقه محسوب می­شود. تحولات جهان عرب پس از سال 2011 میلادی، تأثیرات عمیقی بر نظم و معادلات قدرت در بحرین بر جای گذاشته است. در این رابطه، با توجه به هویت اسلامی- شیعی معترضان در بحرین و تعاملات معنوی بسیار نزدیک آن­ها با ایران، با روی کار آمدن گروه­های شیعی در این کشور، تهران به قدرت و نفوذ فزاینده­ای در صحنه سیاست بحرین دست خواهد یافت. از طرفی، هرگونه تغییر در ساختار حکومتی این امیرنشین تأثیر تعیین­کننده­ای بر ساختار پادشاهی عربستان خواهد گذاشت. ازآنجایی‌که عربستان نقش­آفرینی ایران در معادلات سیاسی بحرین را تهدیدی برای سیاست­های منطقه­ای خود قلمداد می­کند؛ لذا در تلاش برای محدود کردن قلمروی نفوذ ایران در بحرین برآمده است. این پژوهش در پی پاسخ به این سؤال اصلی است که عربستان سعودی برای کنترل و مهار ایران در بحرین دست به چه سیاستی زده است؟ فرضیه پژوهش حاضر این است که عربستان باهدف جلوگیری از تغییرات و پویش­های دموکراسی­خواهانه در بحرین، در تلاش برای جلوگیری از تأثیرات نرم جمهوری اسلامی ایران بر ژئوپلیتیک تشیع در بحرین برآمده است و از این طریق از سرریز شدن تحولات داخلی بحرین به مناطق شرقی خود ممانعت می­ورزد. یافته­های تحقیق نشان می­دهد؛ تغییر رژیم آل­خلیفه، ضمن تأثیر بر سیاست­های انرژی عربستان، مطالبات سیاسی شـیعیان در منـاطق شرقی عربستان را افزایش خواهد داد و آن­هـا را از انـزوای ژئـوپلیتیکی فعلـی رهـایی خواهـد بخشید. این امر ضمن ارتقای جایگاه جمهوری اسلامی و محور مقاومت در منطقه، ایجاد شکاف سیاسی و اجتماعی در درون جامعه عربستان را در پـی خواهد داشت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

  1. Adami, A. (2012). Bahrain Crisis and Regional Security of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Strategy Quarterly, 21(62), 141-168. [In Persian]
  2. Adami, A., Mousavi, S.M.R., & Totti, H.A.(2012). Bahrain Revolutionary Developments and Religious and Geopolitical Conflicts between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Quarterly of Political and International Research, 4(10), 141-169. [In Persian]
  3. Afzali, R., & Mirzadeh Koohshahi, M. (2015). Geopolitical explanation of the lack of democracy in Bahrain. Quarterly of Shiite Studies, 12(48), 75-102. [In Persian]
  4. Afzali, R., Qalibaf, M.B., Pishgahifard, Z., & Mirzadeh Koohshahi, M. (2013). Strategic Consequences of Regime Change and Establishing democracy in Bahrain. Quarterly Journal of Strategic Studies, 1(16), 228-205[In Persian]
  5. Alipoor, A. (2018). Iran-Saudi Arabia's proxy War in West Asia: Case Study of the Syrian Crisis. Quarterly of Political Studies of the Islamic World, 7(26), 143-171. [In Persian]
  6. Altayinia, R.(2015). Islamist movements and the approach of Arab governments to the Islamic Awakening (with emphasis on Saudi Arabia). Quarterly of Shiite Studies, 13(51), 87-118. [In Persian]
  7. Asadi, A.A. (2016). Aggressive Foreign Policy and Saudi Domestic Policy. Foreign Relations Quarterly, 8(29), 16-9[In Persian]
  8. Asadi, A.A. (2017). Saudi Arabia Foreign Policy: Resources, Objectives and Issues. Quarterly of Strategic Studies, 20(1), 107-133. [In Persian]
  9. Asadi, A.A. (2018). Saudi Arabia and regional order: from hegemony to balancing. Quarterly of Contemporary Political Essays, 9(3), 27-52. [In Persian]
  10. Askari, M. (2018). Explaining the Middle East Security Riddle and the Possibility of Iran-West Security Cooperation in Combating Salafi-Takfiri Groups. Islamic Revolution Approach Quarterly, 11(41), 132-155. [In Persian]
  11. Ayoob, M. (2012). The Arab Spring: its geostrategic significance. Middle East Policy, 3(3), 65-103
  12. Badran, T., & Lebanon, N. (Mar 6, 2015). Iran is exporting its Islamic Revolution into Syria, Iraq and Yemen just as it did in Lebanon. Business insider, Available at: https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-is-exporting-the-islamic-revolution-into-syria-iraq-and-yemen-just-as-it-did-in-lebanon-2015-3
  13. Berman, I. (2015). Iran’s deadly ambition: The Islamic Republic’s quest for global Power. New York: Encounter Books, 1- 168
  14. Bozorgmehri, M. (2016). Bahrain's Shia community and its social weight in the power structure Lack of social justice and inequality. Bi-Quarterly Journal of Political Sociology of the Islamic World, 4(1), 43-65. [In Persian]
  15. Burke, E. (2015|). Saudi Arabia's Big Mistake in Yemen. Open Democracy, Free Thinking for the World, 30(3), 1-39
  16. Coates Ulrichsen, K. (2016). Israel and the Arab Gulf States: Drivers and Directions Of Change. Center for the MIDDLE EAST Rice University s Baker Institute for Public Poilcy, 1-15. [In Persian]
  17. Cordesman, A.H. (April 27, 2011). Iranian and Saudi Competition in the Gulf. United States Institute of Peace. The Iran Primer, Available at: http:// iranprimer. usip.org/ blog/2011/apr/27/iranian-and-saudi-competition-gulf).
  18. Cha, V.D. (July 1, 2003). Defensive Realism and Japan's approach toward Korean reunification. NBR Analysis, 14(1), 1-396
  19. Chubin, S. (2012). Iran and the Arab Spring: Ascendancy Frustrated. GRC Gulf Papers Genebra, GRC, 1-52
  20. Doran, M.S. & Shaikh, S. (2011). Bahrain: Island of Troubles, In the Arab awakening. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 1-365
  21. Dorj, H., & Imam Jomehzadeh, S.J.(2019). Saudi Arabia and the strategy of blocking Iran's power in the Middle East (Case Study: Yemen's developments). Journal of the Islamic Revolution, 9(31), 117-142. [In Persian]
  22. Dorj, H., & Yazdani, E.A. (2019). US Strategy toward the Bahrain Popular Movement. Quarterly of Political and international approaches, 10(4), 12-36. [In Persian]
  23. Downs, K. (2012). A Theoretical Analysis of the Saudi-Iranian Rivalry in Bahrain. Journal of Politics & International Studies, 8(3), 1-35
  24. Einhorn, R. (2015). Debating the Iran Nuclear Deal. Available at: http://www.brookings.edu/ research/reports2/2015/08/iran-nuclear-deal-battleground-issues-einhorn.
  25. Ennis, C.A., & Momani, B. (2013). Shaping the Middle East in the Midst of the Arab Uprisings: Turkish and Saudi foreign policy strategies. Third World Quarterly, 34(6), 1127–114.
  26. Farhi, F. (2015). The middle East after the Iran Nuclear Deal. Council on Foreign Relations, Availableat in, http://www.cfr.org
  27. Gause, F.G. (2011). Saudi Arabia's Regional Security Strategy. In: Kamrava, Mehran (ed.), International Politics of the Persian Gulf, Syracuse University Press, pp 174-175.
  28. Hamayatian, E., & Taghvaeipour, Q. (2013). A Comparative Study of the Foreign Policy of Iran and Saudi Arabia in Relation to the Developments of the Islamic Awakening (Case Study of Syria and Bahrain). Persian Gulf International Conference on Environment and Geopolitics, (Researches), July 2, 1- 432. [In Persian]
  29. Hartmann, I. (2016). Saudi Arabia as Regional Actor: Threat Perception and balancing at Home and Abroad. Available at: www.sciencespo.fr/psia/...fr.../HARTMANN_Laura_KSP_Paper_Award.pdf.
  30. Haykel, B. (2013). Saudi Arabia and Qatar in a Time of Revolution. CSIS, February- Available at: http://csis.org/publication/gulf-analysis-paper-saudi-arabia-and-qatar-time-revolution.
  31. Helfont, S. (2009). The Muslim Brotherhood and the Emerging ‘Shia Crescent’. Quarterly of Foreign Policy Research Institute, 53(2), 284-299
  32. Indyk, M.S., Lieberthal, K.G., & O'Hanlon, M.E. (2012). Bending History: Barack Obama's Foreign Policy. Washington, DC, Brookings Institution Press.
  33. Jahanbin, F. & Partoo, F. (2012). The foreign policy strategy of the Islamic Republic of Iran towards the recent Islamic Awakening movement. Quarterly of the Islamic Revolution, 1(3), 117-143. [In Persian]
  34. Jahner, A. (2012). Saudi Arabia and Iran: The Struggle for Power and Influence in the Gulf. Journal of International Affairs Review, 2(3), 1-30.
  35. Kagan, F. (2010). Deterrence Misapplied, Challenges in Containing a Nuclear Iran. Council on Foreign Relations, 1-34
  36. Kamrava, M. (2013). Mediation and Saudi Foreign Policy. Foreign Policy Research Institute by Elsevier Ltd, 57(1), 152-170
  37. Kinninmont, J. ( 2016). Saudi Foreign Policy Is in a State of Flux. Chatham House, February 17, Available at: https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/saudi-foreign-policy- state-flux.
  38. Kirshner, J. (2010). The tragedy of offensive realism: classical realism and the rise of china. European journal of international relations, 18(1), 53-75
  39. Landler, M. (March 20, 2018). Saudi Prince’s White House Visit Reinforces Trump’s Commitment to Heir Apparent. The New York Times, Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/20/us/politics/saudi-crown-prince-arrives-at-white-house-to-meet-with-trump.html
  40. Majumdar, D. (2017). How the United States Is Turning Saudi Arabia Into a MilitaryJuggernaut. National interest, Available at, http:// nationalinterest.Org / blog/ the-buzz/how-the-united-states-turning-saudiarabia-military-20772.
  41. Mandawi, A.R. (2011). The Saudi Complex: Power VS Rights. Retrieved from: www.Opendemocracy.Net
  42. Matthiesen, T. (2015). The domestic sources of Saudi foreign policy: Islamists and the state in the wake of the Arab Uprisings. Brookings Institution, Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Saudi-Arabia_Matthiesen_FINALv.pdf, 1-14
  43. Melman, Y. (2017). Israel and Saudi's secret ambition: Is it on track?. The Middleeasteye, 5 July, Available at: http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/israel-and-saudis-secret-ambitions- will-they-take-flight-472373229/
  44. Mohammadi, F., & Sharifipour, S.(2017). Investigating the relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Bahrain from a constructivist perspective. Quarterly of Political Science, Law and Jurisprudence, 3(1), 1-18. [In Persian]
  45. Muallem, W. (2014). Iran Deal May Strengthen Damascus, Says Syria’s Foreign Minister. Available at: http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iran-deal-may-strengthen-damascus-sayssyrias- foreign-minister-275851002.
  46. Mushirzadeh, H.(2019). Evolution in theories of international relations. Tehran: SAMT. [In Persian]
  47. Najafi Sayar, R. (2020). Relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia from the Beginning of the Third Millennium (from Competition to Divergence). Tehran: University and Higher Institute for National Defense and Strategic Research, First Edition, 1-243[In Persian]
  48. Noor Alivand, Y. (2017). Saudi Arabia and the Effort to Rebalance Against Iran. Quarterly Journal of Strategic Studies, 20(1), 7-32[In Persian]
  49. Ottaway, M. (2011). Bahrain: Between the United States and Saudi Arabia. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Available at: http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2011/04/04/bahrain-between-united-states- andsaudiarabia.(accessed on 2012, Dec 19).
  50. Peterson, j.E. (1991). The Arabian peninsula in modern times: A Historiographical survey of Recent Publications. Journal of Arabian Studies, Available at: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/21534764.2014.979080/
  51. Poorhassan, N., & Seifi, A. (2013). Saudi Arabia and Hegemonic Encountering with Islamic Awareness in Persian Gulf (Case study: Bahrain). Quarterly of Political Science, 16(62), 133-156. [In Persian]
  52. “Qatar-Gulf crisis: Your questions answered”, Jun 5, 2020, Aljazeera, Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2020/6/5/qatar-gulf-crisis-your-questions-answered
  53. Rabi, U., & Mueller, C. (2018). The Geopolitics of Sectarianism in the Persian Gulf. Asian Journal of Middle eastern and Islamic Studies, 12(1), 46-65
  54. Rose, G. (1998). Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy. World Politics, 51(1), 35- 53.
  55. Salisbury, P. (2015). Yemen and the Saudi–Iranian ‘Cold War’. Middle East and North Africa Programme, 18 February, 1-15
  56. Rostami, F. & Tara, A.(2018). Iran-West Nuclear Deal and analysis of relations between ‎Saudi Arabia and Israel. World Politics Quarterly, 7(2), 115-142. [In Persian]
  57. Saei, A. & Alikhani, M. (2013). A Study of the Conflict Cycle in the Relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia with Emphasis on the Period (1392-1384). Specialized Quarterly of Political Science, 9(22), 103-129. [In Persian]
  58. Sanaie, A.(2016). The Impact Of The Events In Bahrain After The Islamic Awakening On The Stracture And The Political-Security Policies Of The (P)GCC. Quarterly of International Relations Research, 1(19), 87-111. [In Persian]
  59. Schueftan, D. (2017). Israel's Regional Alliances: Strategic relations with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States in historical perspective. Mideast Security and Policy Studies, 15(133), 1- 34
  60. Soylu, R. (2016). Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Israel: A new alliance in the region?. daily sabah, Available at: https://www.dailysabah.com/columns/ragip-soylu/2016/01/07/turkey-saudi-arabia-israel-a-new-alliance-in-the-region
  61. Teitelbaum, J.(May23, 2011). Saudi Arabia, Iran and America in the Wake of the Arab Spring. BESA Center Perspectives, Available at: https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/saudi-arabia-iran-and-america-in-the-wake-of-the-arab-spring/
  62. “The Saudi purge: The real reason behind Mohammed bin Salman's Unprecedented Crackdown”, haaretz, Nov 8, 2017, Available at: https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/the-saudi-purge-explained-1.5463426
  63. Torabi, Q., & Mohammadian, A. (2015). Explaining the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran towards the Syrian crisis from the perspective of defensive realism. Quarterly Of Policy Research, 2(3), 61-90. [In Persian]
  64. Torabi, T. (2011). The United States and the stability of the Persian Gulf in the process of Iran-Saudi Arabia geopolitical rivalries. Quarterly of Just Peace Diplomacy, No. 5, 155- 173. [In Persian]
  65. “US embassy cables: Saudi king urges US strike on Iran” Nov 28, 2010, the guardian, Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/us-embassy-cables-documents/150519
  66. Walt, S. M.(1988). Testing Theories of Alliance Formation: The Case of Southwest Asia. Quarterly of International Organization, 42(2), 275-316
  67. Yeganehshakib, R. (2017). Revival of an old rivalry: Saudi Arabia and Qatar Clash. Intpolicydigest, 20 Jun, Available at: https://intpolicydigest.org/2017/06/20/revival-of-an-old-rivalry-saudi-arabia-and-qatar-clash/
  68. Zamani,‎ M., & Zibakalam, S.(2018). The Concept of Balance in the Political System of Iran, Case Study: Post- JCPOA Performance. Quarterly of International Relations Research, 8(27), 41-66. [In Persian]
  69. Zarrabi-Kashani, H. (2014). Iran and the Arab Spring: Then and Now. Muftah, Retrieved from: http://muftah.org/iran-arab-spring-now/#.Vw5XzjArLIU.
CAPTCHA Image