تجزیه و تحلیل رویکرد و منافع سه کشور ایران، ترکیه و عربستان در قبال تحولات سوریه

نوع مقاله : مقالات علمی -پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• حمید درج ¹
• حسین مسعودنیا ²

¹ دانشجوی دکتری علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران

² دانشیار علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران

https://doi.org/10.22067/pg.v4i3.85206

چکیده

امروزه بحران سوریه به یکی از مهم‌ترین موضوعات بین­الملل تبدیل‌شده و توجّه بسیاری از بازیگران منطقه­ای و فرامنطقه­ای را به خود معطوف کرده است. در این میان، بررسی رویکرد و منافع سه کشور ایران، ترکیه و عربستان نسبت به این بحران و تلاش هر یک برای شکل­دهی به معادلات و نظم منطقه­ای مطلوب در راستای اهداف و منافع خود و هم‌پیمانان منطقه­ای حائز اهمّیّت فراوان است. سؤال اصلی مقاله این است که سه کشور ایران، ترکیه و عربستان در قبال تحولات سوریه چه رویکرد و منافعی را دنبال می­کنند؟ فرضیّۀ مقاله این است که ایران برای حفظ و افزایش نفوذ راهبردی خود در منطقه شامات به‌ویژه لبنان، به حمایت از بشار اسد برخاسته است. از طرفی، ترکیه اگرچه در ابتدا رویکرد براندازانه را اتخاذ می­کرد؛ اما به خاطر نگرانی از امنیت و ثبات سیاسی خود ناشی از تحولات منطقه کردستان‌نشین سوریه، هم­اکنون سیاست همکاری و همراهی با ایران و روسیه را در پیش گرفته و برای حل بحران سوریه و آیندۀ این کشور، راه­حل دیپلماتیک را دنبال می­کند. همچنین عربستان برای مقابله با نفوذ منطقه­ای ایران و گسترش گفتمان سلفی­گری، همچنان سیاست براندازی اسد را دنبال می­کند. برای تحلیلداده­هاازروشتحلیلِکیفیاستفادهشدهاست.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• ایران
• عربستان
• ترکیه
• بحران سوریه
• رئالیسم

مراجع

1. Abolfathi, M. & Rostami, B. & Naderi, M. (2018). Comprehensive study of foreign policy of Saudi Arabia and Qatar towards the Syrian crisis (2011-2017). Strategic Policy Research, 6(54), 303-33. [In Persian].
2. Ahmadi Arkami, A. & Nami, M. H. (2019). Analysis of the position of Alawite Shiites in Syria using the SWOT strategic model.A Quarterly for Shi‘a Studies, 17(3), 7-54. [In Persian].
3. Ahmadian, G. & Daneshnia, F. & Karamian, K. R. (2017). Identity and Middle Eastern Foreign Policy of Iran and Turkey in Syria. World Political Quarterly, 5(4), 141-173. [In Persian].
4. Akhavan Kazemi, M. & Akbari, S. & Tara, A. (2017). Analysis of Russia's position on the Syrian Kurds after the 2011 developments. Quarterly Journal of Political and International Approaches, 9(51), 11-35. [In Persian].
5. Alipoor, A. (2018). Iran-Saudi Arabia's proxy War in West Asia: Case Study of the Syrian Crisis. Quarterly Journal of Political Studies of the Islamic World, 7(26), 143-171. [In Persian].
6. Alishahi, A. & Massoudnia, H. & Forouzan, Y. (2017). Examining the political relations between Qatar and Saudi Arabia; From Explaining Convergence to Political Break (From the Islamic Awakening to the Crisis of severance of Political Relations in June (2017). Quarterly Journal of Strategic Studies in Public Policy, 7(24), 49-72. [In Persian].
7. Asadi, A. A. (2012). The Syrian crisis and its impact on actors and regional issues. Strategic Studies of the Islamic World, 13(50), 147-178. [In Persian].
8. Asadi, A. A. (2018). Saudi Arabia and Regional order: from Hegemony to Balancing. Contemporary political inquiries, 9(3), 27-52. [In Persian].
9. Attar, S. & Saeedi Rad, A. (2018). The future of Syria and its opportunities and challenges for the Islamic Republic of Iran. Strategic studies of public policy, 8(28), 147-165. [In Persian].

10. Bartell, D. L. & David H. G. (2012). Conflict in Syria and the Opportunity to Reduce Iran’s Regional Influence and Iran’s Threat to the International Community. Journal of Global Security Studies, 3(4), 1- 12.

11. Chegnizadeh, G. A. & Tajik, H. & Nabavi, S. M. (2013). The impact of the developments in Syria on the interactive model between Iran and Turkey; Conceptual and theoretical model. Afaq and Security Quarterly, 6(21), 61-110. [In Persian].

12. Chubin, S. (2012). Iran and the Arab Spring: Ascendancy Frustrated. Gulf Research Center, http: // carnegieendowment. org/ files/ I ran_and _Arab_ Spring _ 2873.

13. Cook, S. A. (2014). Fiddling while Kobane Burns. Foreign Policy, Available at: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/10/07/fiddling_while_kobani_burns_turkey_islamic_state, Accessed on: 4 March 2016.

14. Doherty, J. & Faltzgraf, R. (2017). Conflicting theories in international relations. ) V. Bozorgi & A. Tayeb, Trans.).Qom. [In Persian].

15. Dorj, H. & Imam Jomehzadeh, S. J. (2017). Analysis of Saudi Arabia's approach to developments in Syria. Political and international approaches, 8(50),86-120. [In Persian].

16. Dorj, H. & Massoudnia, H. (2018). Analysis of the reasons for the transformation of Turkey's foreign policy towards the Syrian crisis. Journal of Defense Policy, 26(104), 73-105. [In Persian].

17. Esmailpour Roshan, A. A. (2017). Analyze and compare the geopolitical goals of Russia and the United States in the 2011 Syria crisis with emphasis on Security of Israel and the regional role of Iran. Geography Quarterly (Regional Planning), 7(2), 227-248. [In Persian].

18. Ghasemi Aliabadi, M. M. & Masoudnia, H. & Emam Jomezade, S. J. (2018). Comparative examination of the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the European Union in response to the Isis crisis and after Isis from defensive realism. Specialized Journal of Political Science, 14(43), 51- 81. [In Persian].

19. Haran, VP. (2016). Roots of the Syrian Crisis, IPCS Special Report. . India, New Delhi:Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies

20. Heshmati Jadid, M. & Bagheri, H.  & Besharti, M. R. & Heshmati, H. (2015). Turkey's geopolitical dilemmas and the Syrian crisis. Journal of Defense Policy, 23(89), 177-208. [In Persian].

21. Jahanbin, F. & Partoo, F. (2012). The foreign policy strategy of the Islamic Republic of Iran towards the recent Islamic Awakening movement. Quarterly Journal of the Islamic Revolution, 1(3), 117-143. [In Persian].

22. Javadi Fathi, M. & Rasouli Thaniabadi, E. & Khosravi Nejad, M. (2018). A comparative study of the impact of the developments in Syria and Iraq on the regionalist policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran and Turkey. International Political Research, 10(36), 26-50. [In Persian].

23. Jervis, R. (1978). Cooperation under the Security Dilemma. World Politics, 30(2), 167-214.

24. Kassab, H. (2016). Syria as a Global Battleground: More Actors, More Interests, More Problems. Northern Michigan University,  available at:http://www.academia.edu/28158384/Syria _as_a_ Global_ Battleground_ More_ ctors_ More_ Interests_ More_ Problems.

25. Khademi, A. (2013). A clarification on the role of turkey in the Syrian crisis with an emphasis on decision theory. M.A. thesis, university of Isfahan: department of political science.

26. Kirshner, J. (2010). The tragedy of offensive realism: classical realism and the rise of china.European journal of international relations, 18(1) 53–75.

27. Kodmani, B. (2015). Syrian voices on the Syrian conflict: A solution for Syria. NOREF Expert Analysis,1- 8.      https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/fde6cee7be339020cd79be5bf1f97cbe.pdf

28. Miller, A. (2012). Everything in Syria Is Going to Plan: It just depends on whose plan you're talking about. Foreign Policy, Available at:http:// www. Foreignpolicy .com /articles /2012/06/13 / everything_ in_ syria_ is_ going_ to _ plan, Accessed on: 23 October 2015.

29. Mushirzadeh, H. (2019). Evolution in theories of international relations. Tehran, Publications Samt. [In Persian].

30. Navakhti Moghadam, A. & Babri, N. (2018). Explain the Syrian civil war based on internal and regional factors. Political and international research, 9(38), 103-129. [In Persian].

31. Niakoei, S. A. & Behmanesh, H. (2013). Opposition actors in the Syrian crisis: goals and approaches. Foreign Relations Quarterly, 4(4), 97-135. [In Persian].

32. Niakoei, S. A. & Sotoudeh, A. A. (2016). The nature of Saudi Arabia's strategy against the Islamic Revolution of Iran in the Syria-Iraq conflict. Journal of the Islamic Revolution, 5(17), 95-110. [In Persian].

33. Ó Cathail, m. (2011). Sanctioning Syria: The long road to Damanscus. Available at: https://www.globalresearch.ca/sanctioning-syria-the-long-road-to-damascus/27726.

34. Phillips, C. (2012). Into the Quagmire: Turkey’Frustrated Syria Policy. Middle East and North Africa Programme, Available at: www. chathamhouse. org/.. ./1212bp_ phillips.pdf.

35. Qasemian, R. & Simber, R. & Jansiz, A. (2018). The Syrian crisis and the new Cold War. Political research of the Islamic world, 8(1), 159-195. [In Persian].

36. Rajabi, S. (2013). Analysis of Syria's strategic position and role in regional and international relations with a glance at recent developments in Syria. 15 Khordad Quarterly, 3(10), 123-150. [In Persian].

37. Rose, G. (1998). Neoclassical realism and theories of foreign policy. World Politics, 51(1), 35- 53.

38. Sadeghi, S. S. & Akhavan Kazemi, M.  & Lotfi, K. (2016). Syria’s Crisis and Regional Powers of Geopolitical Conflict. Quarterly Journal of Political Studies of the Islamic World, 4(16), 107-128. [In Persian].

39. Salimi, H. & Shariati, M. (2014). The national interests of the Islamic republic of Iran; the continuation or cessation of support for Syrian government?. Journal of Defense Policy, 23(89), 71-106. [In Persian].

40. Salloukh, B. F. (2013). The Arab uprisings and the Geopolitics of the Middle East. The International Spectator, 48 (2), 32- 46. [In Persian].

41. Taliaferro, J. W. (2001). Security Seeking Under Anarchy: Defensive Realism Revisited. International Security, 25(3), 128-161.

42. Taspinar, o. (2012). Turkey’s strategic vision and Syria. The Washington Quarterly, 35 (3).

43. Walker, J. w. (2012). Turkey's Time in Syria: Future Scenarios. Brandeis University,Crown Center for Middle East Studies, 63(2), 1- 8.

44. Waltz, K. N. (1979). Theory of international politics. NewYork, Random House.

45. William Samii, A. (2008). A Stable Structure on Shifting Sands: Assessing the Hizbullah-Iran-Syria Relationship. The Middle East Journal, 62(1), 32-53.  

46. Yazdani, E. A. & Hassanzadeh, S. S. & Goodarzi, M. (2018). The Foreign Policy Approach of France and Iran to the Syrian Crisis (2011-2016). Iranian Journal of International Politics, 6(2), 161-192. [In Persian].

47. Yazdani, E. A. & Tahanianzadeh, A. & Fallahi, E. (2017). Comparative Analysis of Turkey and Saudi Arabia’s Strategy in Syria Crisis. Quarterly Journal of Political Studies of the Islamic World, 6(23), 169-192. [In Persian].

48. Zaborowski, M. & others (2011). Iran’s Reactions to the Arab Spring and the Crisis in Syria. Journal of institute PISM, 99(316), 596-597