Aboalghasem Shahryari; Sara Akbari; Mohadeseh Jazaei
Abstract
The concept of the fragility of the state is one of the key words in the political sciences that were considered in the post-World War II period, and especially after the end of the Cold War. The Central Asia has also been one of the geographic regions that has sparked many views and analyzes on the ...
Read More
The concept of the fragility of the state is one of the key words in the political sciences that were considered in the post-World War II period, and especially after the end of the Cold War. The Central Asia has also been one of the geographic regions that has sparked many views and analyzes on the states in the region and their fragility. But it should be noted that the paths that lead to the fragility of governments are not the same, and it is possible to draw different patterns from the ways leading to the fragility of the state. According to this the main research question are, what is the state of fragility in the Central Asia? What are the characteristics of paths that lead to the fragility of the Central Asiaern states? Considering the exploratory nature of the main research question, no hypotheses have been presented and interpreted for the results. To answer the questions, with the benefit of fuzzy logic, the top paths that are created by the combination of several factors are examined. The survey also shows that 10 governments in the Central Asia are fragile states and can identify four causal paths among them. Also, among the factors involved in these causal paths, the government's lack of legitimacy and the existence of conflicting groups can be identified as an unnecessary imperative for the fragile states of the Central Asia.
mehdi moosavi; Bahador Zarei; Marjan Badiee Azandahi
Abstract
The Zionist regime has attempted to break out the geopolitical isolation with the doctrine of peripheral unity and to establish relations with other countries Since the 1960s. Areas such as the Mediterranean, North Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia were given priority by Israel. In the present study, ...
Read More
The Zionist regime has attempted to break out the geopolitical isolation with the doctrine of peripheral unity and to establish relations with other countries Since the 1960s. Areas such as the Mediterranean, North Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia were given priority by Israel. In the present study, the descriptive-analytical method was adopted to examine the periphery doctrine of Israel in the Caucasus and Central Asia as two important geopolitical areas in northern Iran. Our study indicates that the Zionist doctrine, despite a good start, failed to establish sustainable regional partnerships with five countries (i.e., Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Armenia, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan). In contrast, the Israel periphery doctrine in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan has been somewhat successful than these five countries. In this regard, the main Israel stimuli for relations with Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan is including the supply of energy resources (40% of Azerbaijan and 25-25% of Kazakhstan), the existence of two countries with a Muslim majority population, a secular structure and the use of this as a leverage, the sale of weapons, as well as the co-border of these countries with Iran, and the using military and cyber capacity for eavesdropping. It is also worth mentioning that Israel remains a minor commercial partner for Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, despite the uproar created by commentators. Russia, Turkey and Iran are the biggest trading partners of Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan (Iran's commercial ties with Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan in 2020 were about ten and three times more, respectively, than the Israel’s). A more precise analysis of arms sales also shows that Israel is not a major supplier of arms to either Azerbaijan or Kazakhstan, and Russia plays a key role in this context.
Seyyed Hadi Zarghani; Maliheh Akhbari; Neda Chareie; Najmeh Mahmoudi
Abstract
Abstract Countries that are inferior to their neighbors in terms of water supply(upstream) are often passive. In particular, if they are unable to obtain the favorable agreement their neighbors (in a shared basin), they will face challenges and conflicts with them. The opposite is also true; sometimes, ...
Read More
Abstract Countries that are inferior to their neighbors in terms of water supply(upstream) are often passive. In particular, if they are unable to obtain the favorable agreement their neighbors (in a shared basin), they will face challenges and conflicts with them. The opposite is also true; sometimes, upstream countries use this situation as a political tool to put pressure on the opponent and gain more points. This research, using a descriptive-analytical method and citing reliable sources, seeks to study and analyze Turkmenistan's hydropolitical bottlenecks in relation to its neighbors. The paper assumes that Turkmenistan's geographical location and hydropolitical situation in terms of water supply is such that the country will face major challenges with its neighbors. Findings show that Turkmenistan is in a downstream position towards most of its neighbors. This issue potentially (Iran) and actually (Afghanistan and the four Central Asian republics) will create grounds for a hydropolitical challenge for Turkmenistan in relation to its neighbors. While the impact of some variables such as climate change and drought persistence, increasing urbanization and lifestyle changes and consequently a sharp increase in water consumption and the need to produce some strategic agricultural products, will intensify the hydropolitical crisis between Turkmenistan and neighbors in the near future.
